After a brief spell of (unwarranted) upward bounce, last week saw the market erase most of its gains and swing back down to 12,600 levels. Though this is still significantly above the low touched on March 10, during the Fed-JPM-Bear Stearns drama.
OIl continued it's non chalant upward climb, touching as high as USD 133/barrell. It's difficult not to say that OPEC and the other supply side players are strethching their luck. Though there is no refuting the fact that industrial/consumer growth results in increased demand for several gas-guzzling 'instruments' across both the developed and developing worlds, an unreasonable spurt in prices raise red alarms. It's like a fore-warning of future danger due to over-reliance on oil - this in turn shifts tremendous amount of attention on alternative energy - solar being the flavor of the day. The spike in interest in solar shares has been over an year old (at least) by now, but this is probably the turning point for co-ordinated industry-led investments in solar. An example of the latest news on JPM & Wells Fargo funding large banks of solar thermal fields in the west coast and large players like Google and Chevron funding research for the same. If any thing positive is to come by the recent spike in oil prices (apart from bloated tressuries in the Middle East!), its this increased attention and serious focus on alternative energy.
Apart from the above trend, continued upward pressure will feed inflationary pressures which has already shown from the US to Europe to Asia. Inflationary pressures amidst a cooling global economy causes unwanted strain and would further slow growth, especially consumer growth. As has been pointed by almost every one from now, this will eventually create a drop in demand for oil and downward pressure in prices.
So, while the oil economies reap immediate gains, this spike is in a sense the worst thing they could ahve done to themselves longer term. Prices are bound to come back to saner sub-100 levels at least in the next 6-9 months and the longer term focus on alternative anergy gets a tremendous boost. To every one's benefit, reducing over-dependence on one single source of energy!
As for the stock picks to cash in on this wave, i frankly haven't done enough research. My brother's (he does private equity research for an India-based shop) favourite pick has been First Solar...i ignored the pick way back in its 180's! Now that its up in high 200's, i am still wary due to my P/E-driven view of this stock world. He's probably correct since every one from Citi to Jm Cramer has upped their targets on FSLR! And we have another star on the horizon with Evergreen solar - last week saw news of this player winning 2 contracts (from Germany & US) worth almost USD 1 billion - and the shares spiking over 20%!
The next 5-10 years is definitely the time for GREEN. Thanks to OPEC and their greed for helping every one realize that without doubt!
Sunday, May 25, 2008
Sunday, May 11, 2008
Shift in focus away from Financials
The last 4 weeks saw a significant upward correction, with the market touching the 13K levels, albeit for a short while. Technology and Oil & gas led sectoral gains, with names like GOOG and AAPL recovering most of 2008 losses. Financials gained too - MER, LEH, GS etc have all recouped enough to say that there's not enough immediate upside left in them now, till the economy as a whole is back on the growth track. Citi (C) stands out though - it has been one of my perennial favourities in this recession cycle...Vikram Pandit's aggressive trim-down startegy across lines of business and asset segments should give it enough steam to demand far better valuations.
A quick look at S&P 500 sectoral swings the last 30 days:
- Technology up 10% [GOOG, AAPL up 25%; Intel, Cisco, HP, IBM up around 7-10%]
- Oil and gas up 8% [CHK up 20%; SLB up 15%]
- Industrials up 5% [CMI up 40%; BA, CAT up 10%]
- Consumer up 5% [DIS up 14%; TWX up 12%; MCD up 7%; WMT up 5%]
- Financials up 4% [GS, JPM, LEH, FRE, FNM up over 10%]
- Health care down [UNI, LLI down 8%; MRK, PFE down 5%]
...and a look at 3 month trends show an obvious trend - Oil & Gas and Commodities have gained the most [big ticket names like HAL, HLB, CVX, X, NUE, FCX have gained over 25%].
It is however very early in the economic cycle to be bullish on the whole market - we need to take a quick look at the macro picture to interpret the overall trend:
1)Real estate market hits peak in late 2006 and shows signs of buckling by mid 2007
2)#1 results in a bubble burst in the CDO/MBS market, with Bear's hedge funds leading the pack.
3) #2 in turn resulted in sustained panic on Financials...with higher foreclosures, more stress assets, depressed MBS/CDO values, failed auction rate markets, massive write-downs and tighter credit in general
4) Fed/govt responds to #3 with massive rate cuts (325 bps in 6+ months), fiscal stimulus packages and some dare-devil acts like the Bear Stearns rescue.
5) #4 results in some regaining of lost confidence in Financials and realization of the fact that its not the end of the world for any of the big financial firms. Also, Q1 results across most sectors did not show the level of weakness that analysts factored in. This is what probably played out the last few weeks.
However, while the above played out, there are a couple of core trends which stayed negative, to say the least:
- Housing market remains depressed (both new and resale)
- Oil pricess continue maddenning upward trend (125+/barrel as of last)
The above two has enough power to pull down consumer spending for quite some time...and considering that consumer spending accounts for 2/3rds of the economy, we should see sustained slowdown in most sectors as a result. It is just that the market focus will shift from Financials to Manufacturing and Service sectors. Depressed consumer spending would reduce demand for goods and services and this would reflect in earnings for these sectors over the next 2 quarters. What we have seen in Q1 earnings deceleration is probably just the start - in fact Q1 suprised many since probably the lag effect has not started kicking in to reflect in actual earnings for these sectors. Except for Healthcare, I am bearish on most sectors over the next 3 months...save some names in consumer and financials.
BULLISH: UNH, WLP, MRK, PFE, KO, PEP, PG, C
BEARISH: HAL, SLB, CVX, X, NUE, FCX, AA, AAPl, IBM, CSCO, ORCL, MER
NEUTRAL: JPM, GS, LEH
* I do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned above.
The market as a whole will probably lose volatility in the coming months. Financials will remain flat to positive while heavy equipment, automobile, IT/networking will trend downwards. I would rather bet on a 12-12.5K range for the Dow than anything upwards of 13K!
A quick look at S&P 500 sectoral swings the last 30 days:
- Technology up 10% [GOOG, AAPL up 25%; Intel, Cisco, HP, IBM up around 7-10%]
- Oil and gas up 8% [CHK up 20%; SLB up 15%]
- Industrials up 5% [CMI up 40%; BA, CAT up 10%]
- Consumer up 5% [DIS up 14%; TWX up 12%; MCD up 7%; WMT up 5%]
- Financials up 4% [GS, JPM, LEH, FRE, FNM up over 10%]
- Health care down [UNI, LLI down 8%; MRK, PFE down 5%]
...and a look at 3 month trends show an obvious trend - Oil & Gas and Commodities have gained the most [big ticket names like HAL, HLB, CVX, X, NUE, FCX have gained over 25%].
It is however very early in the economic cycle to be bullish on the whole market - we need to take a quick look at the macro picture to interpret the overall trend:
1)Real estate market hits peak in late 2006 and shows signs of buckling by mid 2007
2)#1 results in a bubble burst in the CDO/MBS market, with Bear's hedge funds leading the pack.
3) #2 in turn resulted in sustained panic on Financials...with higher foreclosures, more stress assets, depressed MBS/CDO values, failed auction rate markets, massive write-downs and tighter credit in general
4) Fed/govt responds to #3 with massive rate cuts (325 bps in 6+ months), fiscal stimulus packages and some dare-devil acts like the Bear Stearns rescue.
5) #4 results in some regaining of lost confidence in Financials and realization of the fact that its not the end of the world for any of the big financial firms. Also, Q1 results across most sectors did not show the level of weakness that analysts factored in. This is what probably played out the last few weeks.
However, while the above played out, there are a couple of core trends which stayed negative, to say the least:
- Housing market remains depressed (both new and resale)
- Oil pricess continue maddenning upward trend (125+/barrel as of last)
The above two has enough power to pull down consumer spending for quite some time...and considering that consumer spending accounts for 2/3rds of the economy, we should see sustained slowdown in most sectors as a result. It is just that the market focus will shift from Financials to Manufacturing and Service sectors. Depressed consumer spending would reduce demand for goods and services and this would reflect in earnings for these sectors over the next 2 quarters. What we have seen in Q1 earnings deceleration is probably just the start - in fact Q1 suprised many since probably the lag effect has not started kicking in to reflect in actual earnings for these sectors. Except for Healthcare, I am bearish on most sectors over the next 3 months...save some names in consumer and financials.
BULLISH: UNH, WLP, MRK, PFE, KO, PEP, PG, C
BEARISH: HAL, SLB, CVX, X, NUE, FCX, AA, AAPl, IBM, CSCO, ORCL, MER
NEUTRAL: JPM, GS, LEH
* I do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned above.
The market as a whole will probably lose volatility in the coming months. Financials will remain flat to positive while heavy equipment, automobile, IT/networking will trend downwards. I would rather bet on a 12-12.5K range for the Dow than anything upwards of 13K!
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